Financial Forecasting

📊 Financial Projections & Market Sizing (2025 – 2030)

We anchor our projections in the most respected third-party forecasts for the U.S. pet sector, then layer in our adoption assumptions.

In 2025, the total U.S. pet industry (food, supplies, care, services) is projected at USD 157 billion Mordor Intelligence+1
This market is expected to expand to USD 250 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR ~9.8 % Mordor Intelligence
Within that, the U.S. pet services market (grooming, boarding, care, training etc.) is forecast to grow from ~USD 6.08 billion in 2023 to USD 10.22 billion by 2030 (CAGR ~7.7 %) Grand View Research
The U.S. grooming services segment alone is expected to grow from ~USD 2.06 billion in 2024 to ~USD 2.99 billion in 2030 (CAGR ~6.7 %) GlobeNewswire

These figures establish the depth and tailwinds of the demand we’re tapping into.

To turn that market into our financial runway, here are key assumptions:

Service & subscription penetration	0.1 % of U.S. pet owners adopt Wagtiva service in first full year	grows ~50 % year-over-year (YoY) adoption growth	We start lean, build trust, then scale virally
Average annual revenue per user (ARPU)	USD 120 (subscription + transaction fees)	increases 5 % annually (premium upsell)	Upsell to add-ons, tiered plans
Gross margin	65 %	maintain or gradually improve to 70 %	Digital platform, relatively low incremental costs
Operating expense growth	USD 4 million in 2025	scale at 30 % YoY	Marketing, R&D, support, compliance
Market share capture (services segment)	0.02 % of services market	scale toward 0.1 % by 2030	Influenced by network effects, brand, trust

From these, we build revenue, cost, profit, and cashflow forecasts.

Below is a simplified pro forma for Wagtiva’s financial trajectory under the above assumptions. (Rounded for clarity.)

Year	Users (thousands)	Revenue	Gross Profit	Operating Expense	EBITDA / (Loss)	Margin %
2025	100	12.0	7.8	4.0	3.8	31.7%
2026	150	18.9	12.3	5.2	7.1	37.6 %
2027	225	28.4	18.3	6.8	11.7	41.1 %
2028	338	42.0	27.3	8.8	18.5	44.0 %
2029	507	63.7	41.4	11.4	30.0	47.1 %
2030	761	91.3	59.3	14.9	44.4	48.6 %

“Users” = paying subscribers or active clients (premium, service-using).
Revenue = users × ARPU (plus transaction commissions).
Operating Expense includes marketing, operations, R&D, overhead.
EBITDA is a proxy for operating profit before tax / interest; excludes non-core one-offs.
Margins improve as fixed costs scale and adoption increases.

With revenue in 2030 forecast ~USD 91.3 million and EBITDA ~USD 44.4 million, applying a multiple of 8× to 15× EBITDA (common for software / marketplace growth plays) yields an enterprise value range of USD 355M to USD 666M in 2030.
If we raise a Series B in 2028 at ~6× forward revenue multiple (~USD 250M to USD 300M valuation at that time), investors who back early could see 3–5×+ return by 2030 under conservative assumptions.
Upside scenarios (faster adoption, higher ARPU, margin expansion) push returns higher.

Massive base market — USD 157 billion in 2025, with strong tailwinds.
Underpenetrated digital service layer — even if just 0.1 % market penetration, that’s USD 150 million+ addressable opportunity.
High margins — platform-driven, scalable, lower marginal cost per additional user.
Network effects & retention — once trusted, switching costs and embedded data drive lock-in.
Room for expansion — adding verticals (insurance, telehealth, data analytics) increases ARPU and stickiness.